Yesterday, June 24: Bombed Back Better
Ceasefire keeps ceasing fires, Trump survives another impeachment, and AI is claiming "fair use" for copyright battles
June 24 QFR:
A tenuous ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to hold Tuesday, despite initial violations and President Trump's frustration with both sides
The U.S. House overwhelmingly voted Tuesday to ‘set aside’ an impeachment effort against President Donald Trump led by Rep. Al Green
A federal judge ruled Tuesday that AI company Anthropic's training of its chatbot, Claude, on millions of copyrighted books constitutes "fair use"
Notes for June 25:
0600PST: President Trump participates in a Press Conference in The Hague
0700PST: Fed Chair J. “Purple Tie” Powell Testifies…& New Home Sales (MoM) for May
0730PST: Crude Oil Inventories
1550PST: Trump arrives at the White House, may speak on NATO Summit/Outcomes
Earnings Calls to Watch June 25:
Key Events to Watch June 25:
US Market:
U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 near its all-time high, as oil prices fell sharply following President Trump's announcement of a "complete and total ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. The de-escalation eased fears of disruptions to global crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices also fueled hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, boosting market sentiment.
[The immediate market reaction underscores the profound impact of geopolitical stability and commodity prices on investor confidence. Falling oil prices reduce inflationary pressures, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to lower interest rates, which Wall Street generally welcomes as it stimulates economic activity. While the ceasefire offers relief, the ongoing situation highlights global supply chain vulnerabilities and the market's sensitivity to Middle East tensions.]
🧥 - ITA 0.00%↑, XOM 0.00%↑; 🌲 - JETS 0.00%↑, QQQ 0.00%↑
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has sent Ford an extensive list of 25 questions regarding its BlueCruise hands-free driver-assistance system. This follows an engineering analysis opened in January 2025, which escalated an investigation initiated in April 2024 after two fatal crashes involving BlueCruise-equipped vehicles hitting stationary objects at night. Ford has until August 6 to respond to NHTSA's detailed information request.
[NHTSA's rigorous information request signals a significant escalation in its probe of Ford's BlueCruise, a necessary step before a potential recall. The core issue lies in the system's ability to detect stationary objects, particularly at high speeds and in low light, a known challenge for advanced driver-assistance systems. This investigation highlights the critical balance between innovation in autonomous technology and ensuring robust safety protocols, putting pressure on Ford to demonstrate the system's reliability and potentially leading to software modifications or recalls across affected vehicles.]
🧥 - F 0.00%↑, TSLA 0.00%↑, CARZ 0.00%↑; 🌲 - GOOG 0.00%↑
US Politics:
Republicans are rushing a "big, beautiful bill" before July 4th, aiming to make 2017 tax cuts permanent and add new ones. It includes $350 billion for border security and deportation, paid for by $1.5 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and green energy programs. The bill faces GOP internal dissent, Democratic opposition, and CBO estimates it adds $2.4 trillion to deficits.
[This bill reflects Republican priorities: significant tax cuts, stringent immigration enforcement, and reduced social spending. Its swift passage faces major hurdles, including intra-party disagreements and procedural challenges. If enacted, it could reshape the U.S. fiscal landscape by increasing national debt, while potentially boosting industries tied to defense and border security at the expense of social welfare programs.]
🧥 - TAN 0.00%↑, UNH 0.00%↑; 🌲 - LMT 0.00%↑, FLR 0.00%↑
The U.S. House overwhelmingly voted Tuesday to set aside an impeachment effort against President Donald Trump, initiated by Democratic Rep. Al Green. The resolution accused Trump of abuse of power for launching military strikes on Iran without congressional authorization. The measure was tabled with a 344-79 vote, as most Democrats joined Republicans in opposing the immediate impeachment push, prioritizing other legislative matters.
[This vote reflects a pragmatic decision by House leadership, prioritizing the "big, beautiful bill" and avoiding another potentially divisive and likely unsuccessful impeachment battle. While a significant number of Democrats supported the impeachment effort, the bipartisan majority to table it indicates a desire to focus on legislative priorities. This outcome reduces immediate political uncertainty but highlights lingering tensions over executive power, particularly regarding military action.]
Global Politics:
A tenuous ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to hold Tuesday, despite initial violations and President Trump's frustration with both sides. While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed Iran's nuclear program was "ruined.” President Trump, who had ordered U.S. strikes, publicly urged Israel to de-escalate and stated the ceasefire was "in effect," leading to a global sense of relief.
[The fragile ceasefire's holding, despite conflicting reports and initial breaches, indicates a mutual, albeit reluctant, desire to avoid a wider regional conflict. Continued U.S. intervention and pressure will be critical for maintaining stability, as the conflict's economic consequences, particularly for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, remain a significant concern. If the ceasefire holds and the strikes prove damaging, with continued assessments, this will have been a strategic masterclass from Israel and the US. It could also serve as precedent for future attacks deemed necessary by those leading the attack, and will likely increase cyber-security scrutiny and espionage threats.]
🧥 - OXY 0.00%↑, NOC 0.00%↑; 🌲 - CAT 0.00%↑, UAL 0.00%↑
A U.S. intelligence report, issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) on Monday, suggests that American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities only set back the program by "a few months," not "completely and fully obliterated" it as President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed. The assessment indicates that while significant damage was inflicted on sites like Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, key underground infrastructure, enriched uranium, and centrifuges largely survived, with some materials potentially moved before the strikes. The White House vehemently disputes the DIA's findings.
[This is an early report. Facts will emerge over time with new assessments. This early report challenges the narrative of complete success presented by the Trump administration and Israel, suggesting Iran retains significant nuclear capabilities. The controversy highlights the potential for political pressure to influence the perception of military outcomes.]
The Trump administration has authorized $30 million in funding for the U.S.- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) to distribute food in Gaza. This marks the first known U.S. government funding for the group, which uses private contractors for aid delivery in conflict zones. The operation has drawn strong criticism from other humanitarian organizations, which allege cooperation with Israeli objectives and report deadly incidents near GHF distribution sites.
[The authorization of funds to GHF signals a significant shift in U.S. aid strategy for Gaza, favoring a controversial private entity over established UN and international organizations. This decision, amid accusations of GHF's alignment with a combatant government and reports of civilian casualties near its sites, raises serious concerns about humanitarian neutrality and aid effectiveness. The move could further complicate aid delivery, exacerbate tensions with traditional humanitarian partners, and intensify the debate over foreign aid allocation.]
🧥 - RTX 0.00%↑, GD 0.00%↑; 🌲 - XLY 0.00%↑, EEM 0.00%↑
Technology:
A federal judge ruled Tuesday that AI company Anthropic's training of its chatbot, Claude, on millions of copyrighted books constitutes "fair use" under U.S. copyright law, calling it "quintessentially transformative." However, the company must still face trial in December over allegations it illegally acquired these books by downloading them from "shadow libraries" of pirated copies. This mixed ruling is a significant test case for the burgeoning AI industry and similar ongoing lawsuits.
[This landmark ruling offers a partial victory for AI developers, validating that the act of training AI models on copyrighted material can be considered transformative and thus "fair use." This provides a crucial legal precedent for the core technology underpinning large language models. However, the decision simultaneously reinforces that the method of acquisition of training data is paramount, holding AI companies accountable for using illegally obtained content. This will likely drive AI developers towards more legitimate data licensing, reshaping the industry's approach to data sourcing and potentially increasing costs.
🧥 - NYT 0.00%↑, RDDT 0.00%↑, SPOT 0.00%↑; 🌲 - MSFT 0.00%↑
Waymo's robotaxis are launching passenger services in Atlanta on Tuesday, expanding its partnership with Uber that began in Austin earlier this year. Waymo is deploying about 100 fully driverless vehicles in Austin and now Atlanta, directly competing with Tesla's newly launched, supervised robotaxi service in Austin. This move solidifies Waymo's position as an early frontrunner in the nascent robotaxi market, aiming for 1.5 million annual driverless trips via Uber's platform.
Waymo's aggressive expansion into Atlanta, leveraging its Uber partnership, highlights a strategic push to dominate the nascent robotaxi market. Its fully driverless approach contrasts sharply with Tesla's initial supervised rollout, signaling differing risk appetites and technology readiness. This expansion, coupled with high ride volumes, positions Waymo as a leader, forcing competitors like Tesla and Amazon's Zoox to accelerate their own deployment plans. The market's future will depend on scaling operations, navigating regulatory landscapes, and consumer acceptance of fully autonomous vehicles.]
🧥 - TSLA 0.00%↑, LYFT 0.00%↑; 🌲 - GOOG 0.00%↑, UBER 0.00%↑
Amazon announced on Tuesday that it is significantly expanding its Same-Day and Next-Day Prime delivery services to over 4,000 small cities and towns across rural America, aiming to reach millions of new customers. The e-commerce giant plans to invest more than $4 billion to triple the size of its delivery network by the end of 2026. This initiative addresses a growing demand for faster delivery in rural areas, promises around 170 jobs per new delivery station, and comes as Amazon prepares for its Prime Day event in July.
[Amazon's aggressive expansion into rural markets with accelerated delivery speeds is a strategic move to capture a significant untapped customer base and solidify its e-commerce dominance. This investment aims to extend Amazon's "urban-level" convenience to underserved rural areas, directly challenging competitors like Walmart, which traditionally has a strong physical presence in these regions. By leveraging hybrid hubs and AI for localized inventory, Amazon seeks to enhance customer loyalty, boost sales of everyday essentials, and increase Prime membership value, indicating a calculated long-term play for market share and increased revenue in a "$1 trillion opportunity" in rural spending.]
🧥 - WMT 0.00%↑, DLTR 0.00%↑; 🌲 - AMZN 0.00%↑, FDX 0.00%↑
Google DeepMind on Tuesday launched Gemini Robotics On-Device, a new language model enabling robots to perform tasks locally without an internet connection. Building on the earlier Gemini Robotics model, this on-device version enhances robot movement control and allows fine-tuning via natural language. Google claims it performs near its cloud-based counterpart and surpasses other on-device models in benchmarks. The model, initially trained for ALOHA robots, has been adapted for Franka FR3 and Apollo humanoid robots, with a new SDK released to facilitate developer training using demonstrations.
[The release of Gemini Robotics On-Device marks a significant step towards practical, autonomous robots by addressing latency and connectivity issues inherent in cloud-dependent systems. Enabling local AI processing means robots can operate more robustly in diverse environments, from factories to homes, without constant internet access. This move intensifies competition in the robotics AI space, as Google DeepMind aims to set a new standard for general-purpose, adaptable robots. The accompanying SDK and emphasis on demonstration-based training underscore a strategy to foster a broader developer ecosystem, accelerating real-world applications and potentially democratizing robot programming.]
AI startup Abridge has secured a $300 million Series E funding round, led by Andreessen Horowitz with participation from Khosla Ventures, pushing its valuation to $5.3 billion. This rapid increase follows a $250 million February fundraise. Abridge is a leading AI-powered medical scribe, integrated with Epic Systems, and is now expanding into AI-powered medical coding. The funding underscores strong investor confidence in healthcare AI.
[Abridge's soaring valuation reflects significant investor belief in AI's transformative potential for healthcare administration. Its expansion into medical coding intensifies competition with existing players, including partner Epic Systems, while leveraging its established dominance in AI scribing. This strategic move aims to further streamline clinical documentation and revenue cycle processes, positioning Abridge for continued growth within the rapidly evolving and high-demand healthcare AI market.]
🧥 - MTBC 0.00%↑, ATHN 0.00%↑, CERN 0.00%↑; 🌲 - AMD 0.00%↑
Voice AI company ElevenLabs has released a standalone mobile app for iOS and Android, allowing users to generate voice clips from text on the go. Previously, this functionality was limited to its web app. The new app offers access to ElevenLabs' newest text-to-speech models, v3 alpha, which provide enhanced control over expressions with tags. This launch caters to content creators who were already using web browsers on mobile for voice generation, aiming for a faster, more intuitive native experience.
[The release of a dedicated mobile app is a strategic move for ElevenLabs to capture the growing market of mobile content creators. By providing on-the-go access and leveraging its advanced v3 alpha models for expressive voice generation, ElevenLabs aims to solidify its competitive edge against rivals like Speechify and Captions. This move enhances user convenience and accessibility, potentially driving wider adoption among creators who integrate AI-generated voices into videos and other mobile-first content.]
 | A guest post by
|