Yesterday, June 17: Rockets and Rate Cuts?
Threats intensify further in the Iran/Israel Saga, Elon keeps up the good 230 fight, and clean energy gets another gut punch
June 17 QFR:
Trump claims to know Iran’s Supreme Leader’s location, won’t kill him yet, demands “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”. Attacks continue from both sides.
Elon Musk's X has sued New York State to block a new law requiring social media platforms to report on how they handle problematic posts
Senate Republicans' latest tax bill would significantly scale back clean energy, home efficiency, and electric vehicle tax credits
Notes for June 18:
0530PST: Initial Jobless Claims
0730PST: Crude Oil Inventories
1000PST: President Trump has lunch with Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan
1100PST: FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Economic Projections, Statement
1130PST: FOMC Press Conference
Earnings Calls to Watch June 18:
Key Events to Watch June 18:
US Market:
U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as oil prices jumped and concerns over the Israel-Iran conflict resurfaced. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, with the Dow and Nasdaq also down. Crude oil prices surged after President Donald Trump's hawkish social media comments on Iran. Retail sales data also showed a slowdown. Solar stocks tumbled due to potential U.S. tax credit phase-outs, despite higher oil. Jabil and Verve Therapeutics saw gains, while the Federal Reserve began a meeting on interest rates.
[U.S. stocks slumped due to rising oil prices driven by escalating Israel-Iran tensions and weaker retail sales data. This dual pressure indicates a complex economic outlook: geopolitical risks are impacting energy costs, while consumer spending, a key economic driver, is softening. The simultaneous fall of solar stocks, despite higher oil, highlights how policy uncertainty (tax credits) can outweigh market incentives, directly impacting specific sectors. Investors are now closely watching the Federal Reserve for interest rate forecasts amid inflation concerns.]
🧥 - FSLR 0.00%↑, AMZN 0.00%↑; 🌲 - CVX 0.00%↑, VRNA 0.00%↑
Senate Republicans' latest tax bill would significantly scale back clean energy, home efficiency, and electric vehicle tax credits. Though phased out less quickly than the House version, incentives would be rapidly gutted. Democrats and advocates warn of higher energy prices, job losses, and a slower renewables transition. This proposed policy shift could greatly impact consumers and companies relying on green energy investments, as the GOP aims for a fast-tracked vote.
[This creates uncertainty for investors in green technology while possibly benefiting traditional energy sectors by reducing competitive pressures. The financial market may see volatility in affected industries as companies re-evaluate their strategies based on reduced incentives. It also underscores the influence of political cycles on long-term investment in rapidly developing sectors.]
🧥 - RUN 0.00%↑, ENPH 0.00%↑; 🌲 - XOM 0.00%↑, CEG 0.00%↑
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Marty Makary announced a new initiative to offer faster reviews for medicines promoting "the health interests of Americans." Under this "national priority voucher" program, select drugs could be reviewed in one to two months, significantly faster than existing programs. Companies aligned with U.S. priorities, such as addressing health crises or unmet needs, will receive vouchers for streamlined reviews. This move grants FDA officials unprecedented discretion, aiming to bring innovative cures to the public more quickly.
[This could translate to reduced time-to-market and increased revenue potential for drug developers receiving these vouchers, making their stocks more attractive. However, concerns about the discretion granted to FDA officials and potential impacts on scientific rigor could introduce new forms of market risk.]
🧥 - UNH 0.00%↑; 🌲 - PFE 0.00%↑, LLY 0.00%↑, GILD 0.00%↑
The Senate passed bipartisan stablecoin legislation, the "GENIUS Act," with a 68-30 vote, heading to the House for revisions. This marks a significant step for the crypto industry, a major political spender in 2024, seeking legitimacy. While 18 Democrats supported the bill, many opposed it, citing concerns about President Donald Trump's substantial financial interests in crypto, including $57.35 million in income from World Liberty Financial token sales in 2024. The bill bans Congressional stablecoin profits, but not the President's family.
[The Senate's passage of the stablecoin bill is a critical regulatory advancement for the crypto industry, potentially fostering broader adoption and investor confidence. However, concerns over President Trump's extensive crypto holdings create a significant ethical and political controversy.]
🧥 - JPM 0.00%↑, GS 0.00%↑; 🌲 - COIN 0.00%↑, MSTR 0.00%↑
US Politics:
President Donald Trump publicly dismissed his Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard's assessment that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, stating his belief that Iran is "very close" to having one. This contradicts Gabbard's recent Congressional testimony and previous U.S. intelligence reports. The disagreement highlights a rift between the President and his intelligence apparatus, reminiscent of his first term, as Trump prioritizes aligning with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's view amid escalating conflict.
[This divergence creates significant uncertainty in foreign policy, potentially impacting diplomatic and military strategies in the Middle East. Follows (or adds to) a growing Trump trend of aligning with individuals for personal gain and abandoning them or disparaging them when their viewpoints do not align exactly with his planned course of action.]
🧥 - BP 0.00%↑, SHEL 0.00%↑; 🌲 - LMT 0.00%↑, RTX 0.00%↑
Texas has ceased allocating new state funds for the construction of a U.S.-Mexico border wall, a flagship initiative of Republican Governor Greg Abbott since 2021. State lawmakers approved a new budget that shifts the multibillion-dollar investment away from new wall projects and towards the Texas Department of Safety and the Texas National Guard for Operation Lone Star. To date, Texas has completed 65 miles of wall along its 1,200-mile border with Mexico
[This could impact construction companies previously involved in wall projects, while potentially redirecting state funds to other law enforcement and military-related expenditures. It also highlights the responsiveness of state-level budgets to federal policy changes and the evolving political landscape surrounding immigration. It seems the wall, once a symbol of state defiance, is now becoming a testament to federal alignment—or perhaps, just a very expensive, partially-built fence.]
🧥 - VMC 0.00%↑, MLM 0.00%↑; 🌲 - AXON 0.00%↑, PLTR 0.00%↑
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has lifted the downtown curfew imposed in response to clashes with police, looting, and vandalism that erupted amid protests against President Donald Trump’s intensified immigration crackdown. The Democratic mayor stated that the curfew, enacted on June 10, successfully prevented crime and protected businesses.
[For the financial sector, this move suggests a return to normalcy for local commerce, potentially benefiting retail, hospitality, and real estate in the affected areas. However, the underlying tensions related to immigration policy and the targeting of new technologies like robotaxis highlight persistent societal divisions that could impact investment and operational stability in the long term.]
🌲 - GOOG 0.00%↑, TGT 0.00%↑, SBUX 0.00%↑, V 0.00%↑
Global Politics:
President Donald Trump stated Tuesday that the U.S. knows the whereabouts of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but currently has no intention of killing him. As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, Trump took to social media to demand Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER." His increasingly firm comments follow his early departure from the G7 summit and a call for Tehran residents to evacuate, signifying a potential shift towards greater American involvement in the conflict. Iranian state media issued a threat stating “there is a surprise tonight that the world will remember for centuries” though it was unclear if it was a pending threat or if their recent hypersonic missile attack was what they were discussing.
[This aggressive stance, coupled with potential U.S. military involvement and the deployment of advanced weaponry like "bunker-busting bombs," could trigger unpredictable market reactions, particularly in energy prices and defense stocks. The visible schism within Trump's own base highlights the domestic political tightrope he walks, where a misstep could alienate isolationist supporters while failing to satisfy hawkish allies.]
🧥 - JETS 0.00%↑, MAR 0.00%↑; 🌲 - ITA 0.00%↑, RTX 0.00%↑
Iranian state television has called on its citizens to remove WhatsApp from their phones, alleging, without evidence, that the messaging app sends user data to Israel. WhatsApp vehemently denied the claims, asserting its end-to-end encryption prevents access to message content and that it does not provide bulk information to any government.
[This move highlights the growing risk of state-level censorship and data sovereignty demands, particularly for platforms with international reach. Companies like Meta, which owns WhatsApp, face challenges in maintaining user access and trust in regions where governments exert strong control over information flow.]
🧥 - META 0.00%↑, GOOG 0.00%↑; 🌲 - NVDA 0.00%↑, PLTR 0.00%↑
The Dutch government advised parents against social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram for children under 15, citing psychological and physical problems. Guidelines recommend limiting screen time and keeping devices out of bedrooms. This advisory, not legally binding, distinguishes social media from messaging apps, reflecting growing global concerns over children's online well-being.
[The Dutch advisory highlights a global trend of increased scrutiny on social media for minors. This creates regulatory risk for platforms like Meta and ByteDance, potentially impacting user growth and revenue. It also signals increased demand for digital wellness solutions, as governments prioritize children's online safety.]
🧥 - META 0.00%↑, SNAP 0.00%↑, PINS 0.00%↑; 🌲 - MSFT 0.00%↑
Technology:
Elon Musk's X has sued New York State to block a new law requiring social media platforms to report on how they handle problematic posts, including hate speech, disinformation, and extremist content. X argues the law infringes on free speech rights and a 1996 federal law (Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act) that grants platforms broad immunity for user-generated content and the right to moderate as they see fit. The lawsuit claims New York is improperly trying to influence content moderation and pressure platforms to censor protected speech. This legal challenge mirrors X's successful temporary injunction against a similar law in California
[X's lawsuit against New York's content moderation reporting law highlights a growing legal battle between states seeking greater platform accountability and tech companies asserting First Amendment rights and federal protections. The case also underscores the broader societal debate over free speech versus platform responsibility in the digital age.]
Tesla vehicles secured the top four spots on Cars.com's 2025 American-Made Index, with Model 3 leading. EVs took six of the top 10, including Kia EV6 and VW ID.4. The EV6 had 80% U.S./Canadian parts. This highlights the industry's U.S. electrification push, though tariffs and tax credit cuts threaten future growth.
[Tesla's dominance and EVs' strong showing on the American-Made Index signal a shift to domestic EV production. However, proposed EV tax credit elimination poses a risk. This could curb demand, slow adoption, and jeopardize manufacturing investments, impacting automakers and suppliers. Policy changes remain critical.]
🧥 - NIO 0.00%↑; 🌲 - TSLA 0.00%↑, F 0.00%↑, GM 0.00%↑
Culture:
President Donald Trump is facing a growing division within his MAGA base and national security conservatives regarding a potentially increased U.S. role in the Israel-Iran conflict. Influential figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Charlie Kirk are publicly challenging Trump's stance, reminding audiences of his "America First" campaign promises to avoid foreign entanglements. This schism, evident after Trump's early departure from the G7 summit and his strong rhetoric against Iran, highlights internal conflict within his base, potentially disrupting his administration's priorities.
[The emerging schism within President Trump's core support over potential U.S. intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict highlights the inherent tension between nationalist foreign policy rhetoric and the complexities of global power dynamics. Also highlights a historical trend of Trump aligning with strong individuals for personal gain and abandoning the relationship when they differ in opinion (examples: Carlson, Musk, Milley, Mattis, Flynn, Bolton/Pompeo, Sessions, Tillerson, etc.]
🧥 - NWSA 0.00%↑, FOXA 0.00%↑, DJT 0.00%↑; 🌲 - LMT 0.00%↑
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