Yesterday, June 16: Pray For Peace, Price In War
Israel/Iran confrontation escalates, Trump finalizes trade deal with UK, Taiwan tightens up chip trade with China
June 16 QFR:
Retaliatory strikes continue, Iran’s nuclear facility may have internal contamination following strikes, and Trump tells civilians to evacuate Tehran
President Trump unveiled a U.S.-U.K. Economic Prosperity Deal with UK PM Starmer
Taiwan's Commerce Ministry has placed Chinese chipmakers Huawei and SMIC on its export control list
Notes for June 17:
0530PST: Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales (MoM) May
1000PST: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
**Note: The Department of State and Trump’s Public Calendar were not updated at the time of publication.
Earnings Calls to Watch June 17:
Key Events to Watch June 17:
**Note: The Department of State and Trump’s Public Calendar were not updated at the time of publication.
US Market:
Calm returned to Wall Street on Monday as U.S. stocks rose, with oil prices easing after Israel's attack on Iranian targets. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9%, the Dow 0.8%, and Nasdaq 1.5%, joining a global rally. Despite ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, hopes for contained fighting helped oil prices settle. Geopolitical fears also eased, seen as gold prices declined. Other concerns include Trump's tariffs and the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
[Wall Street's rebound on Monday, despite ongoing Middle East tensions, signals a market that quickly rationalizes geopolitical shocks, betting on contained conflict rather than widespread disruption. Though that “rationale” may have dissipated later in the day as escalations became more likely and Trump requested the entire city of Tehran evacuate. Likely to be a rough day tomorrow should strikes intensify or GOD (or whoever you pray to) FORBID Trump signs us to fight another war in the Middle East.]
🧥 - CHTR 0.00%↑, FANG 0.00%↑; 🌲 - SAGE 0.00%↑, X 0.00%↑
The Trump Organization announced "Trump Mobile," a new venture offering cell service and selling gold-colored phones, furthering the U.S. president's family's brand expansion. This latest licensing deal, which emphasizes patriotism and U.S.-based operations, follows other recent ventures including real estate projects and various branded merchandise. The announcement, featuring the "T1 Phone" and "The 47 Plan" service, comes amidst ongoing ethical concerns regarding the president's profiting from his position.
[The launch of Trump Mobile represents a continued strategy by the Trump Organization to monetize the president's brand through direct consumer products, further blurring the lines between political office and private enterprise. It seems that when it comes to branding, no product is too niche, especially if it can be gilded and wrapped in patriotism.]
🧥 - AAPL 0.00%↑; 🌲 - VZ 0.00%↑, T 0.00%↑, DJT 0.00%↑
US Politics:
President Donald Trump departed the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, on Monday night, a day early, citing the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated much was accomplished, including a trade deal with the UK. World leaders at the summit had scrambled to contain the Mideast conflict, with Trump warning Iran to curb its nuclear program. Other G7 discussions focused on global tensions and trade policies
[President Trump's early departure from the G7 underscores the immediate geopolitical priorities of the U.S. amidst a volatile Middle East, potentially impacting the G7's collective agenda and the perception of global unity. For the financial sector, such swift, high-level diplomatic shifts spark uncertainty.]
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President Trump unveiled a U.S.-U.K. Economic Prosperity Deal that sets a 100,000-unit quota with a reduced 10% tariff on British autos, while keeping steep tariffs above that limit to protect U.S. manufacturers. He imposed a 10% tariff on all EU and Canadian goods—threatening to hike it to 50% by July 9—and maintained a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum. Trump also reaffirmed plans for a sweeping 55% tariff on Chinese imports and warned of more “reciprocal” tariffs if U.S. demands aren’t met. These aggressive moves are already hitting home, with major retailer At Home declaring bankruptcy due to tariff-driven cost surges. U.S. Steel surged 5.1% on the quota news, but retail stocks dropped 2% as American businesses brace for higher import costs and tighter margins.
[Steel optimism lifted $SPY but retail and consumer stocks dropped bracing for supply chain pain and margin compression. Volatility is set to spike in $FXI and $EZU as global partners rush to negotiate before the July 9 tariff deadline. These tariffs could raise consumer prices 1.7%—costing U.S. households $2,800 per year—shrink 2025 GDP growth by 0.7 points, and cut exports by 15.5%, signaling lasting headwinds for retail, agriculture, and global trade.]
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Senate Republicans have unveiled draft legislation for President Trump's "big, beautiful bill," proposing deeper Medicaid cuts, including new work requirements for parents of teens, to offset the cost of making 2017 tax breaks permanent. The plan retains the $10,000 state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap and enhances tax breaks for seniors. It includes $350 billion for Homeland Security and the Pentagon.
[The Senate GOP's proposed bill highlights a stark prioritization of fiscal conservatism and tax cuts over social safety nets, risking significant impacts on low-income populations and healthcare providers. For the financial sector, this legislative push signals potential shifts in federal spending, a likely increase in national debt, and significant implications for the healthcare industry's profitability, especially for providers serving Medicaid patients.]
🧥 - UNH 0.00%↑; 🌲 - MSFT 0.00%↑, CAT 0.00%↑, JPM 0.00%↑
Global Politics:
The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Rafael Mariano Grossi, stated Monday that radiological and chemical contamination is possible within Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment facility following Israeli strikes. While external radiation levels remain normal, concerns focus on the chemical toxicity of uranium hexafluoride inside. Grossi addressed an urgent IAEA board session called by Russia, stressing the need for timely information and warning against further military escalation that risks a radiological release. Netanyahu states strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back and they are not trying to topple the regime, though it could happen as result of strikes anyway. Trump posted an ominous social media message stating “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON…Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
[For the financial sector, this ongoing tension in the Middle East, coupled with the threat of nuclear-related accidents, can fuel volatility in energy markets and drive demand for safe-haven assets. It also increases investment in cybersecurity for critical infrastructure, proving that even in a highly digital world, the most dangerous threats can still be analog. The conflict is likely to escalate despite Iran’s willingness to return to nuclear negotiations.]
🧥 - USO 0.00%↑; 🌲 - GE 0.00%↑, RTX 0.00%↑, LMT 0.00%↑
Intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has led to widespread airspace closures across the Middle East, including in Iran, Israel, and Iraq, leaving tens of thousands of travelers stranded. Major airports in Tehran and Tel Aviv are closed indefinitely, forcing reroutes and cancellations impacting global aviation and individuals seeking to flee or return home.
[For the financial sector, this situation creates significant operational headaches and financial losses for airlines, while potentially boosting demand for alternative transport and logistics solutions that circumvent affected regions. It vividly illustrates how quickly a regional conflict can ground global commerce, reminding us that even the most advanced travel plans can be undone by the simple closure of a sky.]
🧥 - JETS 0.00%↑, $ELAL, UAL 0.00%↑; 🌲 - ZIM 0.00%↑
Taiwan's Commerce Ministry has placed Chinese chipmakers Huawei Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) on its export control list. This action requires Taiwanese companies to obtain government approval before selling goods to these entities, including their subsidiaries. The move intensifies trade and technology frictions, aiming to curb China's efforts to develop advanced AI chips and aligning Taiwan with broader U.S. sanctions against the two companies.
[Taiwan's decision to restrict exports to Huawei and SMIC escalates the global tech rivalry, directly impeding China's domestic AI chip advancements. It also highlights the increasing geopolitical influence on technology markets, proving that in the chip wars, even small islands can wield significant power.]
🧥 - BIDU 0.00%↑, BABA 0.00%↑; 🌲 - TSM 0.00%↑, NVDA 0.00%↑
Technology:
OpenAI executives have allegedly considered accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior and seeking a federal regulatory review of their contract. The friction stems from OpenAI's desire to reduce its reliance on Microsoft for cloud services and to gain more control over its intellectual property, particularly amidst a dispute over OpenAI's $3 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Windsurf, whose IP Microsoft reportedly seeks to access for its own GitHub Copilot tool. OpenAI also needs Microsoft's approval for its for-profit conversion
[This situation introduces increased uncertainty and potential legal risks for both companies, potentially impacting Microsoft's perceived AI leadership and OpenAI's growth trajectory. It also underscores the inherent challenges of deep collaboration between a dominant tech giant and a rapidly innovating startup, proving that even the most celebrated tech "bromances" can end up in the regulatory equivalent of couples counseling.]
Trench - MSFT 0.00%↑; 🌲 - GOOG 0.00%↑, AMZN 0.00%↑, ORCL 0.00%↑
AMD ignited the tech sector with its “Advancing AI” event, unveiling a next-gen server rack architecture that sent shares soaring 8.7% as analysts forecast a leap in data center market share, while Microsoft announced expanded local data controls for European clients, further fueling the Nasdaq’s 1.5% rally and intensifying the AI arms race among mega-cap tech.
[The AMD rally pumped semiconductor ETFs to outsized gains; the AI-driven server market is expected to grow 20% year-over-year, with AMD’s innovation threatening Nvidia’s dominance and boosting tech ETF inflows.]
🧥 – NVDA 0.00%↑, INTC 0.00%↑; 🌲 – SMH 0.00%↑, SOXX 0.00%↑
Elon Musk electrified social media with a midday tweet declaring, “Tesla FSD v13.0 goes global tonight—no more geofencing, no more excuses. The future is here,” instantly sending Tesla shares up 6.2% and sparking a wave of speculative trading in EV and AI-adjacent stocks, as market participants braced for a seismic shift in autonomous driving adoption.
[Musk’s tweet supercharged $TSLA and sent $ARKK and $DRIV ETFs surging, as investors piled into autonomous vehicle and AI innovation themes; the announcement is expected to accelerate FSD adoption rates, boost Tesla’s margins, and force legacy automakers and mobility ETFs to reassess their positioning in the rapidly evolving EV landscape.]
🧥 – GM 0.00%↑, F 0.00%↑; 🌲 – ARKK 0.00%↑, DRIV 0.00%↑
Finland has activated the world's largest sand-based battery in the town of Pornainen, utilizing 2,000 metric tons of crushed soapstone to store up to 1,000 megawatt-hours of thermal energy. This innovative system, developed by Polar Night Energy, uses electricity—primarily from renewable and nuclear sources—to heat sand to 400°C, providing a low-cost, low-carbon solution for district heating. The battery, which can store heat for weeks with minimal loss, promises to significantly reduce the town's reliance on costly oil and wood chips for heating, marking a compelling step in sustainable energy storage.
[Finland's deployment of the world's largest sand-based battery underscores a promising, cost-effective advancement in thermal energy storage, crucial for integrating intermittent renewable energy sources and possibly disrupting the current battery market and lithium. It seems the future of energy storage might just be as simple, and as cheap, as a sandbox.]
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Zoomcar, the Indian car-sharing marketplace, disclosed that a hacker gained unauthorized access to personal data for 8.4 million customers, including names, phone numbers, and car registration numbers. The Bengaluru-headquartered company identified the incident on June 9, after a threat actor contacted employees. While Zoomcar states no financial information or plaintext passwords were compromised, it has implemented safeguards and is cooperating with cybersecurity experts and law enforcement. The company has not yet confirmed if affected customers have been directly notified.
[For the financial sector, this incident highlights the ongoing risk of reputational damage, potential legal liabilities, and the need for robust cybersecurity investments within tech companies, especially those with large user bases.]
🧥 - ZCAR 0.00%↑, UBER 0.00%↑; 🌲 - CRWD 0.00%↑, FTNT 0.00%↑
Culture:
The crypto sector trembled as Shaquille O’Neal agreed to pay $1.8 million to settle a class-action lawsuit accusing him of misleading investors by promoting the now-bankrupt FTX exchange, marking one of the first high-profile celebrity settlements in the FTX fallout; the deal, which covers all legal and administrative costs and requires no admission of wrongdoing, sent minor ripples through crypto-linked equities and ETFs, as investors recalibrated risk around celebrity endorsements and ongoing litigation against bigger names like Tom Brady and Steph Curry.
[The settlement marginally pressured crypto-exposed ETFs as traders weighed the reputational risk for other celebrity-backed projects; meanwhile, broad tech ETFs remained insulated, with FTX-linked litigation risk now seen as more personal problem than a systemic crypto concern.]
🧥 – BITO 0.00%↑, BKCH 0.00%↑; 🌲 – QQQ 0.00%↑, ARKW 0.00%↑
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