Weekend, June 13-15: Faith Based Fire Power; WW3 buffering
Iran/Israel trade 'religious' rockets, Trump melts some ICE initiatives, and Tech executives are joining the Military
June 13-15 QFR:
Israel and Iran unleashed a ferocious third day of missile warfare while the US tries its best to remain uninvolved.
The Trump administration has ordered a pause on immigration arrests at farms, restaurants, and hotels
Chief Technology Officers (CTOs) and other senior executives from leading Silicon Valley companies are taking part-time roles in the U.S. Army Reserve
Notes for June 16:
0400PST: OPEC Report
0800PST: President Trump holds meeting with Canada's PM Carney
0930PST: President Trump participates in G7: Session 1: Global Economic Outlook
1130PST: President Trump participates in G7: Session 2: Economic Growth, Security, and Resilience
1345PST: President Trump participates in G7: Session 3: Making Communities Safe
1715PST: President Trump participates in G7: Session 4: Making the World Secure
Earnings Calls to Watch June 16:
Key Events to Watch June 16:
US Market:
The Trump administration has ordered a pause on immigration arrests at farms, restaurants, and hotels, citing concerns about the impact on industries reliant on immigrant labor. This directive from ICE's Homeland Security Investigations unit follows weeks of heightened enforcement under Stephen Miller's influence
[The Trump administration's pause on immigration arrests in key sectors reflects a pragmatic shift prioritizing economic stability over aggressive enforcement, directly impacting labor-dependent industries. For the financial sector, this move could alleviate some immediate labor shortage concerns for affected businesses, potentially stabilizing supply chains and operating costs in agriculture and hospitality.]
🧥 - CXW 0.00%↑; 🌲 - ADM 0.00%↑, HLT 0.00%↑, DRI 0.00%↑
President Donald Trump has approved Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel, contingent on a "national security agreement" including an $11 billion investment and a "golden share" for the U.S. government. This veto power aims to protect national security interests and prevent steel production cuts.
[Trump's approval, with the "golden share" clause, marks a significant government intervention in M&A, prioritizing national security and domestic jobs. For the financial sector, this sets a precedent for increased oversight in strategic industry deals, influencing future foreign investments.]
🧥 - CLF 0.00%↑, VALE 0.00%↑; 🌲 - X 0.00%↑, CAT 0.00%↑
US Politics:
President Trump's military parade in Washington D.C., celebrating the Army's 250th and his 79th birthday, occurred amidst national "No Kings" anti-Trump protests, some turning violent. The event, showcasing military might, drew both cheers and condemnation, highlighting deep U.S. political divisions. It drew parallels to global military parades, from democratic allies to authoritarian states, reflecting diverse political and cultural purposes, including historical commemorations and displays of power.
[For the financial sector, this volatile environment suggests heightened market uncertainty, particularly affecting industries sensitive to public sentiment or government spending, such as defense. The debate over military displays in a democracy, while perhaps a bit performative, certainly keeps the national conversation—and some stock analysts—on their toes.]
🧥 - XLY 0.00%↑; 🌲 - LMT 0.00%↑, BA 0.00%↑, GD 0.00%↑
The U.S. Justice Department's voting section is shifting focus, pursuing election-related actions in key states like North Carolina and Colorado. This move, including lawsuits and record demands, signals a departure from traditional ballot access protection towards concerns raised by conservative activists, aligning with President Trump's efforts to overhaul election operations.
[The DOJ's new focus on election administration, particularly in battleground states, risks politicizing election oversight and eroding public trust in democratic processes. For the financial sector, this increases regulatory uncertainty and potential legal costs for states, while also potentially influencing investor confidence in sectors tied to political stability]
🧥 - XLF 0.00%↑, META 0.00%↑, GOOG 0.00%↑; 🌲 - GDX 0.00%↑
Global Politics:
The Trump administration has launched a 60-day ultimatum to 36 countries—spanning Africa, the Caribbean, Asia, and the Pacific—to overhaul security and documentation standards or face sweeping new U.S. travel bans, according to a classified State Department memo signed by Secretary Marco Rubio. The targeted nations must address concerns over unreliable identity documents, government fraud, and visa overstays or risk full or partial entry suspensions; this follows the June 9 ban already in effect for 12 countries.
[The expanded travel ban triggered a sector-wide selloff in travel and hospitality, while defensive and tech-focused funds outperformed as capital rotated away from geopolitically exposed sectors and toward perceived safety.]
🧥: JETS 0.00%↑, PEJ 0.00%↑; 🌲: XLU 0.00%↑, QQQ 0.00%↑
Israel and Iran unleashed a ferocious third day of missile warfare, with Israel launching over 100 missiles and drones at 38 Iranian targets—including the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tehran, multiple nuclear research sites, and the South Pars gas field, which alone accounts for the majority of Iran’s gas output—while Iran retaliated with approximately 280 ballistic missiles and drones, many evading Israeli air defenses and slamming into densely populated cities like Tel Aviv, Bat Yam, and Tamra as well as destroying or damaging over a dozen residential and government buildings. Tehran suspended all nuclear talks and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, instantly sending Brent crude futures soaring and igniting a stampede into energy and defense stocks as global equities recoiled.
[The large attacks have left little hope if any for remaining diplomatic channels and have forced investors to price in a prolonged regional conflict; Oil supply chains were threatened, and the specter of a Strait of Hormuz closure loomed over the world economy.]
🧥 – ACWI 0.00%↑, EFA 0.00%↑; 🌲 – XLE 0.00%↑, ITA 0.00%↑
President Trump has denied any current U.S. military involvement in Israel’s escalating conflict with Iran, while leaving the door open to possible future intervention, stating on ABC News, “It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved.” Trump also revealed a lengthy call with Vladimir Putin, expressing openness to Russia mediating the crisis. Additionally, President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, as Trump urged both sides to pursue a negotiated solution but refused to set a timeline for Iranian compliance.
[The president’s ambiguous, high-stakes stance triggered a sharp rally in defense equities, with LMT’s $173B order backlog and RTX’s diversified revenue streams positioning both for outsized gains if U.S. involvement escalates; meanwhile, travel and European financials slumped on war risk and oil volatility, as capital rotated toward military and energy exposure.]
🧥: JETS 0.00%↑, EUFN 0.00%↑; 🌲: LMT 0.00%↑, RTX 0.00%↑
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations are gathering in Canada from Sunday to Tuesday to discuss trade and the ongoing wars. The summit host, Canadian PM Mark Carney has foregone a traditional joint communique for the event.
[The G7 summit's disrupted agenda, dominated by the Israel-Iran conflict and Trump's contentious policies, signifies a fractured international consensus. The absence of a joint communique underscores the challenges in achieving multilateral agreement, suggesting a continued era of unpredictable, individualized national strategies over unified global action. Could possibly see the event as a means to achieve some trade progress.]
🧥 - JETS 0.00%↑; 🌲 - LMT 0.00%↑, NOC 0.00%↑, CVX 0.00%↑
Reports have surfaced that Chinese AI companies are smuggling massive volumes of data out of China in suitcases packed with hard drives, then renting hundreds of Nvidia-powered servers in Malaysia and Southeast Asia to train advanced AI models—an audacious workaround to U.S. chip export bans that instantly reignited concerns about enforcement, national security, and the future of American tech dominance.
[The exposure of Chinese firms bypassing U.S. chip export controls by physically exporting data and leveraging Southeast Asian Nvidia infrastructure spotlights the enforcement gaps in current policy, intensifying pressure on U.S. regulators and raising the chance of even stricter controls]
🧥 - NVDA 0.00%↑, SMH 0.00%↑; 🌲 - XLK 0.00%↑, QQQ 0.00%↑
Technology:
On June 14, 2025, Elon Musk dramatically activated Starlink satellite internet across Iran to counter government-imposed blackouts following Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. His “The beams are on” post on X confirmed that Starlink’s low Earth orbit constellation now provides connectivity to millions, with about 20,000 terminals in use, including mobile cell-to-satellite access expanding reach beyond fixed locations. This move bypasses regime censorship, enabling real-time communication and independent reporting despite Iranian attempts to control information
[Musk’s Starlink deployment in Iran triggered a surge in satellite and cloud infrastructure stocks as investors bet on the strategic value of resilient, censorship-resistant connectivity. The move also sparked debate over regulatory risk and the growing influence of private networks in global crises.]
🧥 - VZ 0.00%↑, T 0.00%↑; 🌲 - GOOG 0.00%↑, MSFT 0.00%↑
Chief Technology Officers (CTOs) and other senior executives from leading Silicon Valley companies, including Meta, Palantir, and OpenAI, are taking part-time roles in the U.S. Army Reserve. This initiative, first announced by the Defense Department in October, seeks to leverage top tech talent for short-term projects in critical areas like data and cybersecurity. The initial cohort includes Meta's CTO Andrew Bosworth, Palantir's CTO Shyam Sankar, and OpenAI executives Kevin Weil and Bob McGrew.
[The integration of top Silicon Valley tech talent into the U.S. Army Reserve represents a significant move to enhance national security capabilities in crucial tech domains. For the financial sector, this signals a deepening collaboration between the defense industry and leading technology firms, potentially fostering innovation and securing lucrative government contracts.]
🧥 - XLY 0.00%↑; 🌲 - PLTR 0.00%↑, MSFT 0.00%↑, META 0.00%↑
Harvard University is releasing a collection of nearly one million digitized books, spanning from the 15th century and written in 254 languages, to artificial intelligence researchers. This initiative, supported by Microsoft and OpenAI, aims to provide AI developers with a rich, culturally significant, and legally sound dataset from the public domain, mitigating ongoing copyright lawsuits from living artists whose work has been used without their consent.
[Libraries opening their digitized archives to AI research marks a strategic shift, providing tech companies with vital, legally permissible training data. For the financial sector, this de-risks AI development by reducing legal liabilities and potentially freeing up capital for innovation. This collaboration transforms traditional institutions into critical data providers, demonstrating how centuries of knowledge can directly fuel the next generation of technological advancement.]
🧥 - PLTR 0.00%↑; 🌲 - MSFT 0.00%↑, GOOG 0.00%↑, META 0.00%↑
New York state lawmakers on Thursday passed the Responsible AI Safety and Education (RAISE) Act, a bill designed to prevent catastrophic scenarios from advanced AI models, such as those developed by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. This legislation targets models trained with over $100 million in computing resources and aims to establish America's first legally mandated transparency standards for frontier AI labs if signed into law by Governor Kathy Hochul. The bill includes requirements for safety reports, incident reporting, and allows for civil penalties up to $30 million for non-compliance.
[This introduces new compliance costs and legal risks for major AI developers, potentially impacting their operational strategies and investment in frontier models within New York. It also highlights a bifurcated regulatory landscape, compelling tech giants to navigate a patchwork of state-specific rules, proving that even AI can't escape the bureaucratic maze.]
🧥 - GOOG 0.00%↑, META 0.00%↑; 🌲 - PLTR 0.00%↑, CRWD 0.00%↑
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